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Twenty-eight global conflicts are happening in the world right now, according to the Center for Preventive Action. Besides the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas War, there are territorial disputes in the South China Sea and a civil war in Myanmar, while Haiti is suffering from social and political instability. These are just a few examples.

In our increasingly globalized world, political conflicts seem to be the new normal, not the exception. This, of course, doesn’t make event planning easier for international associations — which is why risk assessment and management should become a key part of the process.

“In today’s unpredictable environment, robust risk and crisis management planning is essential to safeguard the safety of attendees and overall success of association meetings,” says Michelle Mason, FASAE, CAE, president and CEO of the American Society of Association Executives (ASAE) in Washington, D.C. “Proactive strategies and preparedness not only mitigate potential threats but also instill confidence and resilience within the association community.”

And when it comes to assessing risk, on its list of the top eight security and safety concerns, the ASAE ranks “political uncertainty and war” sixth, with “social unrest” at fourth.

What Is Risk?

Risk is a legal term that refers to the potential for positive or negative consequences from a particular situation or action. Risks arise from uncertainty. Every day, people make decisions that will affect them, for good or for bad. These are personal risks, such as making the decision to buy a new house or car, or weighing whether or not to quit a job and find a new one.

The same concept can be applied when an international association is planning an event, especially during a national, regional or global conflict. This is defined as political risk.

What Is Political Risk?

Simply put, political risk is the possibility that an association could suffer loss due to political changes or instability in a country or region. Political risks can be broken down into the following categories:

• Geopolitical: Wars, tensions between countries and terrorist acts that affect civilians and international relations
• Country-level: National political turmoil or government/institutional instability
• Policy and Regulatory: International, national or local governments that change existing laws, policies or regulations, impacting organizations and markets
• Societal risks: Boycotts or protests from public activism that affect global markets and businesses

How Can Political Risks Impact International Association Events?

Kate Sargent, managing director at Bioscientifica Ltd. and CEO of the parent organization, Society for Endocrinology in Bristol, U.K., experienced this exact scenario with a major European medical conference she was organizing in 2023. The event was being held in Turkey, and a controversial presidential election result had just been announced.

“Disruptions can take many forms and impact the event and the attendees in various ways,” says Sargent. She adds that these include:

• Hesitancy to travel to the destination if political unrest is widely reported in the media
• Hotel or venue capacity if there are staff shortages due to disruption
• Flight cancellations
• Impact on social events that typically take place in more central city locations
• Shortage of public transport for travel around the city

While these are the most obvious, there are other, more subtle ways in which political risks can impact an event. For instance, political instability can lead to currency exchange rates that affect budget and attendee costs. New laws or regulations could impact association activities. And negative media coverage of the conflict could cause backlash toward the association.

Always keep everyone continually informed of any potential dangers, as well as the safeguards they must take traveling to and from the event. Photo by Cheney Orr

How to Decide When to Move or Cancel an Event

According to Mark Herrera, director of safety & security for the International Association of Venue Managers (IAVM) in Coppell, TX, the decision to proceed with, postpone, cancel or relocate an event is guided by a comprehensive risk assessment that evaluates the following factors:

• Local Intelligence and Threat Monitoring: Consultation with government agencies, embassies, law enforcement and private security firms to assess the current climate
• Severity and Proximity of Unrest: Facilities analyze whether the turmoil directly affects the event location and/or has the potential to escalate
• Operational Impact: Venue and teams evaluate disruptions to transportation, supply chains and emergency response capabilities
• Recommendations from Security Partners: Reliance on professional security consultants and risk management teams to provide scenario planning and forecasts

Sargent says that canceling is always the last option, as it has the biggest impact on insurance costs, the hosting organization and the attendees. While changing locations is a better solution, you’re presented with the challenge of looking for a venue within the same country to minimize disruption to people’s travel plans. In addition, she says, it’s important to think about the association’s bid process to host the event in that particular country. If you move the event to another country, you’re committed to returning to the original destination when it’s safe, which presents a whole other set of challenges. “This happened with the 2023 Turkey event in that we were due to host there in 2020, but by 2018 it was clear that the safety concerns meant we needed to move locations,” she says. “It took five years for this event to reconsider the original location.”

Of course, another challenge is finding other venues and hotels that are available to host the event. This can prove difficult since they can be booked up during the busy spring and fall seasons up to six years in advance. But post-pandemic, switching to a virtual event is always an option. In this case, you’ll need to have an online event platform, which is an entirely separate event management process. The virtual event fees can be expensive as well, since the physical one has already been paid for.

“I had some limited experience of this before 2020, not least due to the 2010 volcanic ash cloud,” Sargent says. “However, on February 24, 2020, this became my full-time job, and the ripple effects are still ongoing. We most recently held an event in Liverpool that was originally due to be hosted by the city in 2021, but due to the movement of the 2020 event at the 2020 venue into 2021, the 2021 venue had to be negotiated to the next available slot in the venue’s diary, which was 2024!”

While the steps to cancel or move the event are extremely complex with many moving parts, Sargent suggests that once the decision has been made, this is how you should start the process:

• Discuss the options with the insurance company
• Discuss rebooking options with the venue(s) for future use
• Decide whether the event will flip to virtual with the existing program, or if that program should be moved to a future event (if there is one), and whether there will be any consequences resulting from this decision

While there are never any surefire ways to avoid political risks altogether, you can mitigate them. This is called risk management.

What Is Risk Management?

Risk management is simply the process of identifying and analyzing potential threats or uncertainties that could negatively impact an international association’s event or meeting in a financial, operational or reputational way — and then taking action to control them. When doing this, it’s important to think about the short- and long-term effects on your organization and ask these questions:

• What are the chances the political risk will affect your event?
• How will the political risk impact your members’ lives or business success?
• How likely is it that the political risk will impact your association’s operations?
• Will the political risks impact your long-term public reputation?

When making these decisions, it’s best to discuss options with the government of the hosting country or city. “For the event in Turkey, we contacted the local city government to request their assessment of the event’s viability in the city and at the venue, due to the expected political turmoil,” Sargent says. She then had discussions with her association’s insurance company and made a recommendation to the hosting organization.

How Can You Mitigate Potential Political Risks?

Once you’ve answered these questions, it’s important to come up with a strategy. This means being fluid and open to change is key. But as a meeting planner, you already know this.

Here are some tips you can use to help you navigate political uncertainty:

• Analyze the political climate of potential host countries before selecting a venue
• Offer a variety of meeting locations in different regions to avoid relying on one politically sensitive country
• Make contingency plans to adapt to changing political situations
• Communicate with government officials in the host country to understand potential political risks
• Inform participants about current political situations and any safeguards they should take while traveling
• Research insurance options that cover potential financial losses caused by unforeseen political events

“When planning for an event with the possibility of political turmoil, there needs to be a proactive, multilayered approach to ensure the safety and security of guests, which begins by conducting a comprehensive risk assessment in partnership with local law enforcement, intelligence agencies and private security firms,” says Herrera. “There must be strong communication with local police, emergency responders and venue security teams to understand protocols and emergency response plans.”

He emphasizes the importance of developing and distributing a detailed crisis communication plan, including emergency contacts and well-thought-out response procedures. If circumstances escalate, he says, contingency plans must be in place for evacuation, shelter-in-place and event cancellations. Then you should request increased security presence if needed and coordinate traffic management and crowd control with officials.

“Developing emergency plans for large-scale events is a collaborative, multilayered process that prioritizes preparedness, coordination and adaptability,” Herrera says. “The process begins with assembling a planning committee [that comprises] key stakeholders, including:

• Venue Management Teams
• Security Personnel and Emergency Responders (e.g., law enforcement, fire, EMS)
• Event Organizers and Operations Teams
• Risk Management Experts
• Local Government and Public Safety Officials
• Medical and Crowd Management Specialists

This cross-functional team ensures all perspectives are considered, addressing vulnerabilities and identifying necessary resources, he says.

Herrera adds that it’s imperative to have a comprehensive risk assessment for the event that evaluates:

• Historical data on threats or incidents at similar events
• Site-specific vulnerabilities, including entry points, crowd density and surrounding infrastructure
• Current geopolitical or social risks that may affect the event

Then, he suggests, it’s time to develop the Emergency Operations Plan (EOP), which outlines the following:

• Incident Command Structure (ICS): Clearly defined roles and responsibilities for all personnel
• Communication Protocols: Multichannel communications system, including mass notifications, radios and mobile alerts
• Evacuation and Shelter-in-Place Procedures: Crowd management strategies and accessible emergency exits
• Medical Emergency Plans: Onsite medical teams, triage locations and hospital partnerships
• Active Threat and Severe Weather Protocols: Tailored plans for specific incidents, including active shooters, bomb threats and severe storms
• Contingency Plans: Backup locations, transportation routes and crisis response measures

In addition to an EOP, Herrera says training and tabletop exercises can prepare teams for most hazards and vulnerabilities before any event. “Conducting regular training sessions and simulations with venue staff and partners is crucial to ensure familiarity with the plan,” he says, adding that IAVM provides the following training for event venues:

• Tabletop Exercises: Scenario-based planning to test responses to incidents
• Full-scale Drills: Hands-on emergency simulations to assess readiness
• De-escalation and Communication Training: Preparing frontline staff to manage guest interactions during crises
• Active threat/active shooter preparedness
• Building resilient security teams

When it comes to the safety and security of guests and staff at the event, Sargent says that responsibility lies with the hosting venue and hotels. However, Sargent and her team work closely with the venues, convention bureaus and local destination-management companies to coordinate efforts. “We have often employed tactics such as employing additional security staff at the venue, putting on coach transfers for guests and staff between hotels and the venue, [providing] city-issued guidance for visitors to the destination, canceling city center social events and [holding] them at the venue,” she says.

Sargent says that when Turkey’s controversial presidential election result was announced, they monitored constantly and coordinated all the different information coming in from the stakeholders. “Ultimately, we measure how safe it will be, based on the guidance we are getting from the hosting government bodies with regard to tourist travel to the destination,” she says. “No one can ever truly be 100% guaranteed of their safety in any city or location, but political unrest can be more accurately measured and monitored than terrorism, for example.”

As a professional conference organizer (PCO), Sargent and her team have created a crisis management plan that is always up to date, and every member of the crisis management group has both hard and soft copies reissued every year. In addition, each event has its own such plan, with the group made up of representatives from the association hosting the event and the organizing PCO.

“It really all comes down to communication,” Sargent says. “The messaging needs careful consideration, and you have to communicate with the right audiences in the right order, giving as much information as possible and making it as clear and simple as possible for people to get the answers to their questions.”  | AC&F |